Two Barriers on the Road to Wealth

Two Barriers on the Road to Wealth

by Nilus Mattive 10-06-09

Nilus Mattive

Have you ever been driving on the road when traffic suddenly comes to a halt? You sit there wondering what the heck is going on up ahead for ten or fifteen minutes. Then, suddenly, things start moving again and you realize that the hold-up was caused by merging traffic and a couple of yahoos who decided to wait until the last possible second to move over into the proper lane.

Why do people consistently do things like this? Why do they wait until the last possible moment to move over, even when there were ten signs warning them to do so for the last five miles?

I lump them into two categories:

The first group wants to eke out every last possible foot before they merge, thinking they’re going to time it perfectly. Never mind that it rarely happens and they end up sitting in gridlock with everyone else. It’s not about the end result — it’s about the thrill of going for an extra advantage.

The second — and larger — group is simply not paying attention. Maybe they’re talking on their phones, shaving, or eating burgers. Whatever the reason, they don’t even see the signs in the first place. They’re blindly following the car ahead of them.

None of this is news to you, I’m sure. If you’ve driven on a U.S. highway, you’ve seen these people in action over and over again. But I bring it up today because these very same psychological mistakes can prevent us from successfully building wealth.

Let’s Start with the Proverbial Portfolio Lane Changers …

There’s nothing wrong with trying to actively manage your portfolio. In fact, I think you’re right to stay on top of your finances day in and day out.

However, I don’t think you’re going to get ahead by shifting out of an investment every time it slows down a little bit.

Not only will commissions — and possibly taxes — put a serious drag on your performance, but you face very stiff odds of regularly outperforming, too.

There's an important difference between taking charge of your  finances and making too many micro adjustments.
There’s an important difference between taking charge of your finances and making too many micro adjustments.

As a real world example, I’d point to my portfolio in Dividend Superstars. Some of our positions were initiated in the summer and fall of 2007 … right as the market was beginning to crack. And during the March lows, they had fallen substantially (though a lot less than the broad market).

However, their fundamental businesses hadn’t changed. The dividend income was still flowing. There was no reason to abandon ship, in my opinion … so I told my subscribers to continue holding.

Today, the shares have recovered quite nicely. And once you factor in the dividend income, they have really outperformed their benchmarks.

Had we jumped in and out, we would have run the risk of getting whipsawed over and over again.

So my message is this: If you’re already paying attention to the market “signs,” and adjusting accordingly … great! Just don’t overdo it. Major shifts should be undertaken only after much consideration.

Meanwhile, Inertia Can Be Even More Damaging
To Your Ability to Consistently Build Wealth!

I was recently at the Salvation Army to donate some items. As you’d expect, I asked for a donation form so I could write off these donations on my tax return.

That’s a logical thing to do, right? I mean, who wouldn’t take the two minutes to fill out a simple piece of paper for the chance to keep some more of their hard-earned dollars away from Uncle Sam!

Well, the answer is “a lot of people,” apparently.

I say that because as I was filling out my form, another guy next to me grabbed a form and asked me some basic questions about how it worked.

I explained that it was pretty simple. You just wrote down what you were donating and took your copy home with you. An accompanying piece of paper would tell you how much your items were realistically worth for deduction purposes.

He started to write down a word or two … then said something like, “Who am I kidding? This isn’t worth it!” He crumpled up the paper and walked away. And he wasn’t alone. I saw plenty of folks who just dropped stuff off and left.

Sometimes filling out a  simple form can yield big financial rewards!
Sometimes filling out a simple form can yield big financial rewards!

Look, if you’re just giving a couple t-shirts, I understand — it’s not worth the hassle. But I’m talking about people who were giving chairs, tables, and many other big items.

My point is this: Nearly everyone knows that donating to a charity is tax deductible. Yet not everyone will take even one very easy step to ensure that they reap the financial benefit of doing so.

Yet if you want to build and maintain wealth you have to not only think about money matters on a regular basis, but also have the discipline to follow through on your plans!

Consider retirement planning, one of my favorite subjects …

It’s no secret that contributing to a 401(k) plan makes sense for most workers. There are upfront tax advantages. Many companies toss in “free” money in the form of matched contributions. And it’s pretty clear that the traditional retirement anchors such as pensions and Social Security aren’t necessarily going to be there the way they were in prior years.

Yet according to mutual fund behemoth Vanguard, only 60 percent of workers eligible for 401(k) plans chose to participate in 2008.

Sure, you could argue that the other 40 percent had a better use for their money. Or that the recession crunched their finances to the point where contributions weren’t possible.

BUT, Vanguard also found that 84 percent of workers in 401(k) plans with AUTOMATIC enrollment participated.

That 24-percentage-point difference tells me that, for a lot of workers, the sheer “hassle” of filling out a simple form is too much of a burden. They’d rather miss out on all the great advantages of participation than do a couple minutes worth of work. It has nothing to do with their financial situations at all.

Want Prosperity? Just Follow the Rules of the Road!

Since you read Money and Markets, I know you’re already pretty serious about building — and maintaining — your wealth. You’re already very disciplined. And I’m positive that you know a heck of a lot more about financial matters than most other investors out there.

But I also know that we all change lanes a little too frequently, or fail to heed warnings along the road from time to time. So it’s nice to get a gentle reminder that little steps DO pay off down the line. And that it is indeed possible to obsess over your portfolio a little too much.

Remember, all the knowledge in the world doesn’t mean a thing if you don’t use it properly.

So continue to do what you’re doing, and always keep an eye on places in your financial life that you could improve. Here are just four areas off the top of my head:

Taxes: Whether it’s taking the time to fill out a donation form, or enrolling in a tax-sheltered retirement plan, there are plenty of ways to lower your tax bill.

Asset allocation: Periodically revisit your portfolio and make sure you’re happy with how much money you’ve got invested in stocks, bonds, commodities and so on. The percentages should jibe with your age, your risk tolerance, and your overall opinion of where the world economy is heading.

Specific investments: Don’t stick with winners or losers just because. Make sure their stories are still sound … and their purpose in your overall portfolio is still valid.

Your budget: I’ve discussed this in detail before, but it really pays to keep track of what you’re making AND what you’re spending. I think you’ll find that there’s always another way to put a little extra money away for a rainy day. And as many Americans are now discovering, getting thriftier can actually be enjoyable!

Heck, at least think about these things the next time you’re stuck in traffic. Because we all have the tools and potential to build wealth consistently. It just takes a little planning and a lot of patience.

Best wishes,

Nilus


About Money and Markets

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Where — and Who — Are the Bulls?

by Claus Vogt 10-07-09

Claus Vogt

Bull markets are said to climb a wall of worry. And during the past week this valued adage came to my mind again and again.

You see, I’ve been travelling quite a bit in Europe … giving speeches and presentations. This gave me the opportunity to talk to many institutional and private investors, and entrepreneurs. And was I ever surprised about how much things have changed!

From: “The Fed and the Government Will Not Let it Happen” …
To: “The Fed and the Government Can’t Fix It.”

In 2007 and during most of 2008, I was extremely bearish, predicting a severe global recession, a bear market in stocks and commodities, and a banking crisis.

“That’s very interesting, Claus,” is what I was regularly told. “But you’re much too bearish. Don’t you see how the world has changed? The central banks and governments are so much brighter now than they used to be; they just won’t let it happen.”

Back when I said a bear  market was on the horizon, many pundits disagreed.
Back when I said a bear market was on the horizon, many pundits disagreed.

In other words, my very bearish forecasts were met with high skepticism.

Now the story I have to tell is somewhat different … I’ve turned medium-term bullish for the economy and the stock market. I expect a bounce lasting at least until mid 2010.

And you know what? I get more or less the same reaction as I did two years ago, with one twist: “That’s very interesting, but we don’t believe it. The problems are too big to be solved by central banks and governments.”

I’m Left Wondering … Who Is Actually Bullish?

Maybe my experiences are a statistical outlier and not representative of what’s going on in the world of finance. Or maybe this European picture differs totally from what’s going on in the U.S.

But I doubt it.

The bearish reports I’ve read during the past few weeks are constantly referring to too many bulls!

Yet the U.S. sentiment indicators aren’t showing the high degree of bullishness that the bears are constantly referring to when underlining their own bearish forecasts.

Take a look at the chart below, which shows the Investor’s Intelligence Advisor Sentiment.

S&P 500 and Investor's Intelligence Bulls to Bears Ratio

The bears correctly state that the bullish sentiment is nearly as high as it was when the stock market hit its all-time high in October 2007. But they neglect to mention that in October 2007 the number of bulls wasn’t especially large!

What’s more, during each of the bull market years 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, there were long stretches of much higher bullishness in this indicator. The same holds true for prior bull markets.

So historically, the bulls-to-bears ratio does not look excessively high.

Meanwhile, Many of Those Who Saw the Crisis
Coming Are No Longer Bearish Over the Medium Term …

Over the weekend I was one of the speakers at the Summit of Austrian Economics in Vienna. Many of the European analysts — professors and practitioners — who predicted the global financial crisis were gathered there. Plus Marc Faber and John Naisbitt appeared as special guests. All were given the opportunity to present their current outlook.

For the medium term, I expect the market to continue advancing.
For the medium term, I expect the market to continue advancing.

Interestingly, all of these very successful forecasters are still very, very bearish and anxious about the longer-term future … say three, five or even ten years out. But for the medium term, they aren’t bearish anymore!

Of course there were differences about how long this medium-term may last. Opinions ranged from one to three years — with the usual caveat that forecasts will change if developments warrant.

Still, these independent thinkers — contrarians if you will — have shown a very deep understanding of what has been going on economically during the past year. They were on top of the game then … and I think they’re on to something again.

Best wishes,

Claus


About Money and Markets

For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

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